Monsoon deficiency at 21%; to pick up post July 20: IMD

LS Rathode, Director General of the Indian Meteorological Department, tells CNBC-TV18 that the seasonal monsoon deficiency is currently at 21%.

LS Rathode, Director General of the Indian Meteorological Department, tells CNBC-TV18 that the seasonal monsoon deficiency is currently at 21%, and for July it stands at 12%. “But we expect a pick up starting July 20,” he said.

In a few states like Maharashtra, Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan, the deficiency is over 50%, fuelling worries about cropping this year, as well as its impact on the economic growth and inflation.

Below is an edited transcript of his interview with Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukehrjee.

Q: Can you start by filling us in on what exactly the deficiency is for the month of July and what the prognosis is for the rest of the month, how much of a pickup can we expect?

A: The seasonal deficiency is minus 21% and for July month deficiency is minus 12%. Most of it is confined to the semi arid corridor of the country, and that includes south interior Karnataka to north interior Karnataka, Maharashtra, Marthwada, Gujarat, Saurashtra, west Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab.

The deficiency for interior Karnataka is ranging from 45% to 50%, for Maharashtra it is ranging between 30% to 40%, for Gujarat it is about 50%, for Saurashtra it is 70% and for Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan it is ranging between 50% to 65%.

Q: In these three states that you spoke about; Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat, the agriculture minister seems to be very worried and he is talking about drought like conditions, major shortfalls in crop this time. Are you expecting a pickup or do you think this will be a very deficient monsoon for these three states particularly?

A: I think there will be some pickup starting from 20th July. Karnataka may get rainfall, both coastal as well as interior Karnataka, and so also Gujarat and parts of Madhya-Maharashtra. So we definitely expect some pickup there.